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08/21/2010 - Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Peter Bourjos and Bobby Abreu clubbed back- to-back homers in the second inning, as the Los Angeles Angels went on to beat Minnesota, 9-3, in the second portion of a three-game series at Target Field.
Bourjos added an RBI triple for the Angels, who had dropped four of five coming in. Trevor Bell gave up three runs on four hits and a career-high six walks in 4 1/3 innings. Francisco Rodriguez (1-3) limited the Twins to one hit in 2 2/3 innings of relief to pick up the win.
Michael Cuddyer stroked a two-run single in a three-run first for Minnesota, which had won 10 of its last 11 home games. The Twins began the day with a 4 1/2-game lead over the Chicago White Sox in the American League Central. Chicago is scheduled to play a double-header against Kansas City on Saturday.
Twins starting pitcher Kevin Slowey (11-6) departed after three innings because of discomfort in his right triceps. Slowey will be further examined by doctors on Monday. He gave up four runs on seven hits versus Los Angeles, one outing after tossing seven hitless innings against Oakland.
The Twins spotted Slowey a three-run lead in the first inning. Denard Span led off with a walk and swiped second before Joe Mauer drew a one-out walk. Both runners came home on Cuddyer's two-out single. Cuddyer took second on a walk to Jim Thome and scored on Delmon Young's base hit.
Los Angeles quickly countered with a four-spot in the second. Back-to-back singles by Hideki Matsui and Erick Aybar put runners on the corners to start the inning. Mike Napoli followed with a sacrifice fly. One out later, Bourjos tied the game with a blast to left field for his first career major league home run. Abreu's 15th home run of the season put the Angels in front.
A two-out RBI triple by Bourjos extended the lead to 5-3 in the fifth.
Minnesota loaded the bases with one out in the bottom of the inning, but Jason Kubel was gunned down at the plate attempting to score on Young's fly ball to center.
The Angels tacked on two more runs in the sixth. Jeff Manship, who replaced Slowey on the mound, was lifted in favor of Ron Mahay with two outs and a runner on first. Matsui then hit a ball to center that couldn't be reeled in by Span. Torii Hunter scored easily and Matsui wound up on third because of the error. Aybar followed with an infield single to plate Matsui for a 7-3 Los Angeles advantage. Mahay was injured on the play and left the game.
Jeff Mathis tripled home Napoli in the ninth and scored when Minnesota shortstop J.J. Hardy misplayed a grounder off the bat of Bourjos.
Game Notes
Abreu joined Alex Rodriguez and Vladimir Guerrero as the only active players with at least 15 home runs in each of the last 13 seasons (1998-2010)...Howie Kendrick and Aybar both had three hits for the Angels...The Twins still lead the season series, 4-2.
<< Manny Ramirez returns for Dodgers
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Manny
Ramirez was activated from the 15-day disabled list Saturday.
Ramirez was put on the DL July 20, retroactive to July 17, due to a right calf
strain. He was hitting .317
<< Cubs hold on to edge Braves
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tom Gorzelanny turned in seven strong innings
and Aramis Ramirez finished 3-for-4 with two RBI, as Chicago escaped with a
5-4 victory over Atlanta in the middle contest of a three-game set from
Wrigley
<< Virginia Tech extends Beamer's contract
Blacksburg, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Virginia Tech has extended the contract of
head football coach Frank Beamer through the end of 2016.
Beamer, whose current contract ends at the end of 2012, is entering his 24th
season as the Hokies' hea
<< Debussy upsets Gio Ponti for Arlington Million crown
Arlington Heights, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - European invader Debussy upset
defending winner Gio Ponti to capture Saturday's 28th running of the Arlington
Million at Arlington Park. The four-year-old colt's win of the 1 1/4-mile
grass r
Federer, Fish to meet in Cincy final >>
Mason, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Swiss superstar Roger Federer will meet wild card
American Mardy Fish in the final of the $3 million Western & Southern
Financial Group Masters after each won his respective semifinal matchup.
Federe
Bucs QB Freeman exits Saturday's game >>
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman left
Saturday's pre-season game against Kansas City with an injured thumb.
Freeman led the Buccaneers on a seven-play, 28-yard drive on their opening
possession th
Nats P Strasburg leaves with arm injury >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Washington Nationals rookie phenom Stephen
Strasburg left Saturday's game against Philadelphia with an apparent injury to
his throwing arm/elbow.
In the fifth inning, Strasburg's third pitch to Philadelphi
Twins place Slowey, Mahay on DL >>
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins have placed starting
pitcher Kevin Slowey and reliever Ron Mahay on the 15-day disabled list after
both were hurt during Saturday's game against the Los Angeles Angels.
Slowey depar
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Michael Vick is back, Brett Favre isn't and the NFC East remains the best division in the NFC, maybe in all of football.
As players start to gather for the start of another season, some things change and some stay the same in the world of the NFL.
The NFC East has been the dominant division in the National Conference for a while, despite limited playoff success, save for the New York Giants surprise Super Bowl win two seasons ago.
Hell, there's a generation of kids in Texas who have never seen the Cowboys win a playoff game (last win was in 1996).
But collectively, the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins (well, maybe not so much the Redskins) are as good as a division gets in an NFC conference that has struggled to stay competitive with the AFC side.
Sports bettors have both acknowledged the NFC East's dominance, as one glance at the NFL future odds menu will show.
Looking over the NFL betting odds at online sports book MySportsbook.com we see the top three teams listed to win the NFC Championship are all from the NFC East:
Dallas Cowboys - 7 - 1
Philadelphia Eagles - 13 - 2
New York Giants - 9 - 2
Slotting in behind these three are two teams from the NFC North: the Minnesota Vikings (15-2) and the Chicago Bears (10-1).
Again, despite the lack of recent playoff success, the Dallas Cowboys are popular with the sports betting community, as they hold 14% of all the money wagered on who will win the NFC Championship.
So far, the New York Giants are the bettors' favorite to represent their conference in the Super Bowl, as they have 24% of the overall NFC Championship betting volume.
And what about the Philadelphia Eagles? For the most part, the Eagles had a very productive offseason, the kind that could bring them back to the top.
They had a good draft adding the likes of WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy.
Unfortunately, the team received a blow when long-time defensive coordinator Jim Johnson passed away on Tuesday.
But this team will make a real run at the division title this year. Going into the regular season, Philly is listed at +240 to win the division.
Last season the Eagles were 9-6-1 SU and 10-6 ATS.
Teams from the NFC East will play teams from the AFC West in the regular season and the Eagles haven't really been a good bet in the last 20 games against the likes of San Diego, Oakland, K.C. and Denver, only going 8-12 ATS.
Two seasons removed from that Super Bowl title, the New York Giants see themselves listed as the odds-on favorite in NFC East championship futures at +162.
Plaxico Burress is gone and with him all the bad publicity surrounding the gun in the sweatpants incident, but can they replace him in the offense?
Last season the Giants were a very reliable bet going 12-4 ATS.
In the Giants' last 20 games against fellow teams from the NFC East; they are 13-7 ATS.
Dallas is listed at +240 to win the division.
Dallas went 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS last season and with the amount of talent the Cowboys have, a similar performance won't do.
The Cowboys have been atrocious against divisional rivals, going 6-14 ATS in their last 20.
The Washington Redskins are longshots to win the division at +550.
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